Human history has been marked by several major collapses of civilizations, sometimes partial (Western Roman Empire), sometimes reversible (Classic Maya Civilization), and often irreversible (Easter Island Civilization). These complex phenomena generally result from the interaction of multiple environmental factors, i.e., abrupt or gradual disruptions in the political, social, economic, or cultural continuity of a complex society.
Sources: Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), Jared Diamond, Collapse (2005), Eric H. Cline, 1177 B.C. (2014).
The collapse of a civilization never occurs without precursor signs. These indicators, often visible decades or even centuries beforehand, take various forms but converge towards a dynamic of systemic weakening. Archaeologists, historians, and climatologists identify a set of recurring factors:
These signs do not guarantee a collapse, but their conjunction increases the probability of a tipping point. Their study today helps to better understand contemporary vulnerabilities, particularly in the context of the Anthropocene.
The following table summarizes several emblematic cases of civilizational collapse throughout human history. Each collapse is presented with its peak period, location, date of decline, and probable causes.
Civilization | Period | Region | Date of Collapse | Duration of Decline | Probable Causes | Specific Remarks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indus Valley Civilization (Harappa) | c. 2600–1900 BCE | Pakistan, northwest India | c. 1900 BCE | 200–300 years | Climate changes, weakening of trade, floods | No traces of war or brutal conquest |
Akkadian Empire | c. 2334–2154 BCE | Mesopotamia | c. 2150 BCE | 50–80 years | Severe aridification, internal conflicts, invasion by the Guti | First multiethnic empire |
Hittite Empire | c. 1600–1178 BCE | Anatolia (Turkey) | c. 1178 BCE | 20–50 years | Invasions (Sea Peoples), drought, dynastic conflicts | Sudden end of Hattusa |
Mycenaean Civilization | c. 1600–1100 BCE | Greece | c. 1100 BCE | 100–150 years | Earthquakes, wars, famines, invasions | Beginning of the "Greek Dark Ages" |
New Kingdom of Egypt | c. 1550–1070 BCE | Egypt | c. 1070 BCE | 150–200 years | Internal troubles, decline of the Nile, economic instability, invasions | Significant political fragmentation |
Assyrian Empire | c. 900–612 BCE | Northern Mesopotamia | 612 BCE | 20–40 years | Internal revolts, enemy coalition, economic exhaustion | Capital Nineveh destroyed |
Olmec Civilization | c. 1200–400 BCE | Gulf of Mexico | c. 400 BCE | 100–200 years | Climate changes, population movements | Precursors to the Mayans |
Western Roman Empire | 27 BCE – 476 CE | Western Europe | 476 CE | 200–250 years | Economic crisis, political instability, barbarian invasions | Transition to the Middle Ages |
Classic Maya Civilization | c. 250–900 CE | Mesoamerica | c. 900 CE | 100–200 years | Droughts, overpopulation, wars, local ecological collapse | Major southern cities abandoned |
Tiwanaku Empire | c. 500–1000 CE | Andes (Bolivia, Peru) | c. 1000 CE | 50–100 years | Prolonged drought, agricultural decline, regional instabilities | Predecessor to the Incas |
Khmer Empire (Angkor) | c. 802–1431 CE | Cambodia | 1431 CE | 100–150 years | War with Siam, hydraulic crisis, political instability | Angkor Wat gradually abandoned |
Easter Island Civilization | c. 1200–1600 CE | Easter Island (Rapa Nui) | c. 1600–1700 CE | 100–150 years | Deforestation, ecological collapse, internal conflicts, isolation | Emblematic case of overconsumption |
Inca Empire | c. 1438–1533 CE | Andes (Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador) | 1533 CE | 10–20 years | Spanish conquest, civil war, epidemics | Very rapid fall to Pizarro |
Aztec Empire | c. 1428–1521 CE | Central Mexico | 1521 CE | 5–10 years | Spanish conquest, diseases, anti-Aztec indigenous alliances | Spectacular end of Tenochtitlan |
Viking Civilization of Greenland | c. 980–1450 CE | Greenland | c. 1450 CE | 100–150 years | Little Ice Age, isolation, social rigidity | Refusal to adapt to the Inuit climate |
Sources: Nature Geoscience – Climate and Collapse, Cambridge – Collapse of Ancient States, Global Environmental Change – Complex Societies and Collapse.
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