The Great Bifurcation that will Disrupt Our World: Survival or Collapse?

Turbulence Zones for the Planet

The Earth system is a complex system due to its multiple interconnected components, its non-linear feedbacks, and its emergent behavior, which is difficult to predict from the properties of its individual elements alone.

The major interacting subsystems—climate, oceans, freshwater, biosphere, human activities—do not follow a simple cause-and-effect relationship but can amplify unpredictably. It is enough for a single threshold to be reached for the system to tip and generate cascading disruptions. These irreversible thresholds are "points of no return" and not "passage points" in gradual changes.

Bifurcation in Physics is a Fundamental Concept

In physics and mathematics, a bifurcation refers to a qualitative change in the behavior of a dynamic system when one of its parameters exceeds a critical value. This concept, central to the theory of complex systems, explains how small modifications can cause abrupt and radical transformations.

During a bifurcation (pitchfork bifurcation), a stable equilibrium point divides into two new stable solutions while itself becoming unstable; the transition is irreversible beyond the threshold. For example:

• Magnetization transition (Ising model, ferromagnetism), below a critical temperature, two stable magnetizations appear; above, no net magnetization.

During a bifurcation (saddle-node or fold bifurcation), two fixed points, one stable and one unstable, meet and disappear in a structural collapse. For example:

• Ecological catastrophe (water quality of a lake), below a phosphorus level, the lake water is clear (stable system). A slight increase in phosphorus eliminates the clear equilibrium: the system irreversibly tips to a turbid lake.

During a bifurcation (Hopf bifurcation), a stable fixed point becomes unstable as the system's parameters evolve (slowly or by threshold), while giving rise to a stable limit cycle. For example:

• Heart cell (action potential in the cell. Below an excitability threshold, the cell remains stable at rest. Beyond, rest becomes unstable and the system produces autonomous periodic impulses. The heart starts beating spontaneously: appearance of a stable limit cycle.

What is the stable state that our society is about to lose?

Our world interacts with multiple systems—climatic (clouds and cloud cover, etc.), ecological (agricultural crisis and declining yields, etc.), social and political (democratic regimes, etc.), economic and technological (financial markets, etc.), cultural and cognitive (collapse of common narratives, etc.).

These equilibria seem durable but are actually maintained in dynamic regimes sensitive to critical parameters. When a parameter crosses a threshold, the system can undergo a bifurcation, i.e., suddenly lose its initial stability to evolve into a completely unpredictable state. Depending on the nature of the bifurcation, transitions can be more or less abrupt.

This phenomenon, well-known in physics, mathematics, and biology, also applies to our societies. Weak signals accumulate in the system (geopolitical tensions, global warming, biodiversity loss, technological interdependence, rising global debt, capital concentration, growth of populist movements, widespread distrust of science, increasing tensions over drinking water, accelerated aging of populations, rapid urbanization, explosion of misinformation, modification of shared reality, growth of uncontrollable AI, societies' capacity for adaptation, etc.)

Bifurcation and Future of the World System: Loss of Predictability

If the "World System" approaches any critical point, bifurcation is imminent, and the system is close to a radical shift. We all feel that our planet is approaching one or more critical thresholds where major bifurcations could occur, with irreversible consequences for human societies. Faced with these multiple potential tipping points, humanity is confronted with an unprecedented challenge: understanding these critical thresholds allows us to prepare for inevitable transformations.

Paradoxically, the stable state that our society is about to lose could well be the Stability of Global Predictability, i.e., the ability to project the future in the medium term. This could trigger a set of cascading consequences linked to coupled instabilities (ecological, energy, social, technological, etc.).

Concrete consequences of losing this stable state

• End of reliable predictive models: Inability to plan for 10, 20, or 50 years.
• Proliferation of "financial bubbles": The economy becomes chaotic or intermittent.
• Increase in extreme phenomena: Local and global climate becomes difficult to model.
• Accelerated social changes: Norms, professions, family or educational structures change too quickly for generations to adapt.
• Institutional fragmentation: The democratic attractor loses stability, and new, more radical attractors emerge.
• Individual and collective disorientation: Instability of cultural, educational, and professional references.
• Accumulation of constraints: Permanent hyperadaptation or systemic fatigue with risks of local then global failure.
• Emergence of new attractors: Unexpected alternative regimes may emerge: technocentric societies, digital fragmentation, eco-dictatorships, neo-tribalisms.