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Last updated August 17, 2025

Earth in Crisis: Collapse or Renaissance?

Cyclone Catarina from ISS

The Planet as a Complex System

The Earth system is a coupled ensemble: atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere interact through energy and matter flows. This system is maintained out of equilibrium by the constant input of solar energy (\(\approx 1361 \ \text{W.m}^{-2}\)). Stability depends on feedbacks: some negative (regulation by the carbon cycle) and others positive (ice melt reducing albedo).

N.B.: A system out of equilibrium is a physical system that does not spontaneously tend toward a stable state of rest. It is maintained in a dynamic state by a flow of energy or matter, such as the Earth's atmosphere continuously heated by the Sun. Dissipative structures (vortexes, convection cells, biogeochemical cycles) are typical examples, illustrating how order can emerge from imbalance.

Climate Tipping Points

IPCC models identify several "tipping points": the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, the possible shutdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), or the massive release of methane trapped in permafrost. Each of these phenomena can abruptly amplify warming and trigger cascades of transitions.

Earth's Radiative Balance

Earth constantly receives energy from the Sun in the form of visible and ultraviolet radiation. Some of this energy is reflected directly back into space by clouds, bright surfaces such as ice and deserts: this is the albedo, which averages 0.3, or 30%. The rest is absorbed by the oceans, continents, and atmosphere, then re-emitted as infrared radiation. If the balance is zero, the average temperature remains stable. But if there is more incoming energy than outgoing, the planet warms.

Thus, radiative balance is not a fixed state but a dynamic compromise: it depends on natural cycles (volcanoes, solar activity, glaciations) and human actions (emissions, deforestation). This is the key to understanding why a warming of only +2°C has systemic consequences on the global climate.

Collapse: The Anthropocene Scenario

The exceeding of planetary boundaries: an alarming scientific finding

In 2023, a study published in Science Advances confirmed that six of the nine planetary boundaries (climate, biosphere integrity, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, land use, chemical pollution, freshwater) have already been crossed. Biodiversity loss is accelerating: according to the IPBES, 1 million species are threatened with extinction, half of which could disappear by 2100 if current trends continue. Ocean acidification, linked to CO₂ absorption, has increased by 30% since the pre-industrial era, threatening coral reefs and marine food chains.

Weak signals become glaring

Cascade effects and tipping points

IPCC scientists highlight the risk of irreversible tipping points (e.g., collapse of the Atlantic ocean circulation, permafrost thaw releasing methane). These phenomena could uncontrollably amplify warming, even if CO₂ emissions were stopped tomorrow.

N.B.: Tipping points (or bifurcations) refer to critical thresholds beyond which a system shifts to a new state, often irreversible. These abrupt transitions occur when positive feedbacks amplify initial disturbances, such as accelerated melting of the ice sheet or the transformation of the Amazon forest into savanna. Tipping points are particularly concerning in the climate system, as they can trigger cascade effects (e.g., massive release of methane from permafrost thaw).

Resilience and adaptation: unequal responses

Faced with these challenges, adaptation strategies (dikes, resistant crops, sponge cities) remain insufficient in the most vulnerable countries. North-South inequalities are worsening: the richest 10% of the planet emit 50% of greenhouse gases, while the poorest populations bear 90% of the impacts.

Renaissance: Towards a Symbiosis between Humanity, Nature, and Artificial Intelligence

Decarbonization: an energy revolution underway?

Table of global cities committed to carbon neutrality
CityCarbon neutrality targetMain leversMajor challenges
Copenhagen (Denmark)2025
  • 100% renewable energy (wind, biomass)
  • Decarbonized urban heating network
  • 75% of trips by bike
  • High cost for households
  • Adaptation of historic infrastructures
Oslo (Norway)2030
  • 100% electric public transport
  • Carbon tax on thermal vehicles
  • Positive energy buildings
  • Political resistance from suburban areas
  • Cold climate requiring intense heating
Paris (France)2030
  • Thermal renovation of buildings
  • Massive greening (50% permeable surfaces)
  • Low-emission zones (LEZ)
  • Urban density and architectural heritage
  • Financing of work for owners
Stockholm (Sweden)2030
  • Urban heating powered by biomass
  • Waste recycling into biogas
  • Fleet of electric buses and taxis
  • Harsh winters increasing energy demand
  • Coordination between municipalities in the region
Shenzhen (China)2030
  • Fleet of 16,000 electric buses
  • 50% of electricity from solar and hydroelectric
  • Local carbon market
  • Dependence on a manufacturing industry that emits
  • Rapid population growth
Vancouver (Canada)2030
  • 90% renewable energy (hydropower)
  • Zero-emission new buildings from 2025
  • Expansion of bike lanes
  • High real estate prices limiting renovations
  • Seismic risks complicating infrastructures
Amsterdam (Netherlands)2030
  • Ban on thermal vehicles by 2030
  • Offshore wind energy
  • Canals used for thermal regulation
  • Adaptation of canals and dikes to climate change
  • Mass tourism generating emissions
Xiong’an (China)2050
  • New city designed to be zero carbon
  • Autonomous and electric transport
  • Positive energy buildings and total waste recycling
  • Costly and experimental project
  • Construction and population deadlines
New York (USA)2050
  • "Climate Mobilization Act" law (80% reduction in building emissions)
  • Development of offshore wind
  • Taxation of polluting vehicles
  • Aging infrastructures
  • Social inequalities and access to green technologies
Tokyo (Japan)2050
  • Hydrogen for the 2020 Olympics and beyond
  • Typhoon-resistant and energy-efficient buildings
  • Advanced waste recycling
  • Natural risks (typhoons, earthquakes)
  • Dependence on energy imports
Sydney (Australia)2050
  • 100% renewable energy for the city
  • Decarbonized public transport
  • Greening to combat heat islands
  • Dependence on coal for national electricity
  • Recurrent bushfires

N.B.: Carbon neutrality is achieved when a city offsets its residual greenhouse gas emissions with carbon sinks (forests, capture technologies) or carbon credits. Targets vary according to local contexts (climate, economy, politics) and calculation methods (geographical scope, emission scope). Asian cities, although very committed, face specific challenges related to their population growth and historical dependence on fossil fuels.

Ecosystem restoration: the era of biological corridors

Global governance: towards strengthened cooperation?

The Kunming-Montreal Agreement (2022) sets binding targets to halt biodiversity loss. Proposals are emerging to create a United Nations Assembly for the Environment or an International Climate Court.

Human-nature synergy: eco-technology at the service of life

Persistent challenges: social acceptability, financing (annual deficit of $700 billion for biodiversity), technological balance.

Key question: Can the technobiotic transition emerge without a radical overhaul of current economic and political systems?

Further reading

Final observation: These two scenarios—collapse or renaissance—are not mutually exclusive. They already coexist, and it is in their tension that the future is at stake.

Articles on the same theme

The Demographic Transition: Growth or Decline? The Demographic Transition: Growth or Decline?
Lake Agassiz: A Deluge that Changed the Climate Lake Agassiz: A Deluge that Changed the Climate
Drunken Forests: Understanding the Phenomenon of Permafrost Thaw Drunken Forests: Understanding the Phenomenon of Permafrost Thaw
There is Electricity in the Air! There is Electricity in the Air!
Why Doesn't CO2 Fall to the Ground? Why Doesn't CO2 Fall to the Ground?
Dramatic Consequences of the El Niño Phenomenon Dramatic Consequences of the El Niño Phenomenon
Will man be the biggest animal on Earth? Will man be the biggest animal on Earth?
Acid rain beyond the natural Acid rain beyond the natural
Global warming Global warming
Habitable zones or ecosphere of stars Habitable zones or ecosphere of stars
Ocean water from elsewhere Ocean water from elsewhere
Sustainable development, the living are watching us Sustainable development, the living are watching us
The Aral Sea: A Lesson for Humanity The Aral Sea: A Lesson for Humanity
The largest dam in the world The largest dam in the world
The Hottest Years Since Records Began The Hottest Years Since Records Began
Magnitude of future global warming Magnitude of future global warming
Earth in Crisis: Collapse or Renaissance? Earth in Crisis: Collapse or Renaissance?
Ice on the Brink: The Inevitable Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Ice on the Brink: The Inevitable Decline of Arctic Sea Ice
Earth's Water Reservoirs: From Oceans to Groundwater Earth's Water Reservoirs: From Oceans to Groundwater
Sea Levels Are Rising, But How Fast? Sea Levels Are Rising, But How Fast?
Global Dimming: A Dangerous Respite in the Climate Crisis Global Dimming: A Dangerous Respite in the Climate Crisis
The Age of the Sahara: From Green Prairie to Stone Desert The Age of the Sahara: From Green Prairie to Stone Desert
World Population from 1800 to 2100 World Population from 1800 to 2100
Oil: The Fall of a Giant in the Era of Renewable Energy Oil: The Fall of a Giant in the Era of Renewable Energy
Kamchatka King Crab: A Giant of the Oceans Kamchatka King Crab: A Giant of the Oceans
The collapse of a society The collapse of a society
Slight Progress in the Global Ecological Footprint Slight Progress in the Global Ecological Footprint
The South Atlantic Anomaly The South Atlantic Anomaly
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The disturbing cloud cover of the Earth The disturbing cloud cover of the Earth
The Planet's New Clouds: Asperatus, Mammatus, Morning Glory and Other Remarkable Clouds The Planet's New Clouds

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