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Last update: August 19, 2025

Solar Storms and Catastrophic Scenarios

Solar storm seen by koronas-photon

The Sun, Our Capricious Star: Solar Storms

Solar storms are explosive events related to the Sun's magnetic activity, including coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and intense solar winds. A super solar storm is characterized by exceptionally powerful particle flows and magnetic fields, capable of strongly interacting with Earth's magnetosphere and critical technological systems.

Conditions for a Super Solar Storm to Reach Earth

Not all solar ejections are directed toward Earth. For a super solar storm to become truly dangerous to our planet, several physical conditions must be met:

The convergence of these factors makes super solar storms rare but potentially catastrophic, as it maximizes the transfer of energy from the Sun to Earth's and space systems.

Impacts on Earth and Infrastructure

A super solar storm can significantly affect our planet and its technological systems. The main impacts include:

The combination of these effects shows that a super solar storm is not only an astrophysical event, but a real technological and economic risk for our connected civilization.

Frequency of Super Storms

The convergence of favorable conditions—CME orientation toward Earth, appropriate magnetic polarity, high speed and density, maximum solar activity, and interaction with pre-existing solar wind—makes super solar storms extremely rare.

Historical and isotopic analyses show that events comparable to the Carrington storm of 1859 occur on average every 100 to 200 years. Thus, the annual probability of a truly catastrophic super storm for our modern infrastructure is estimated between 0.01% and 0.1%, but the potential impacts on our modern infrastructure make the event catastrophic.

Probability and Forecasts of a Super Solar Storm

Comparative Table of Major Solar Storms

Historical super solar storms and their impacts
EventYearProton flux (\(p/cm^2/s\))Main effectComment
Carrington Event1859~1010Massive geomagnetically induced currents, auroras visible worldwideMost intense historical event recorded, reference for super storms
Quebec Storm1989~109General power outage in Quebec, satellite disruptionsFirst major modern disturbance affecting an industrial power grid
Halloween Event2003~109Satellite damage, disrupted HF communicationsSignificant impact on satellites and communications, but no massive ground outage

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