Future population growth in the world, is difficult to estimate accurately. Still many organizations publish forecasts, based on the rate of birth and many other indicators, also estimated. These projections are revised from time to time, based on updated information and improved modeling techniques. However, most estimates predict that world population will be between 8 and 10.5 billion in 2050. Inevitably, this will increase the unbearable pressure on food resources, water, fossil fuels and other limited resources consumed by human populations. Projections made by these organizations require a certain continuity deliberately ignoring the disaster scenarios. When did this happen catastrophe, i.e. the sharp decline of the world, no one can predict when and how this will happen and what will be the trigger event (war, epidemics, climate, earthquakes, volcanoes, crisis world trade,...).
Mankind already uses too much natural resources and the pace continues unabated. This puts unsustainable pressure on the natural environment and ecosystems on which we depend. Yet humanity is making efforts, the birth rate in the world is down slightly. In developed countries it is below the replacement level, but in developing countries, they are usually well above. Agriculture uncontrolled waste water, the raw materials and fossil fuels, the plundering of the seas, the massive destruction of plant and animal species, will they not end up depleting the planet?
However, a rapid decline in fertility is underway in all countries and particularly in developing countries. Despite the decline in birth rates, it is difficult to believe that the curve will be reversed in the years to come.
Once again it will take the human race adapts quickly to environmental context without reaching the state of overcrowding that would produce a Malthusian catastrophe. Malthusian catastrophe means a demographic collapse following an exponential growth population and is due to the depletion of resources, following to this growth.
Image: Curves the number of children per woman.
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Image: In 2050, with a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman, world population would reach 11.8 billion people.
The scenario "high", 10.7 billion (fertility of 2.35), the "average" scenario 9.1 billion (2.1 fertility - for the replacement of generations), the scenario "low", 7.7 billion (fertility 1.85 - rates adopted by the United Nations).
Source: United Nations.